A New Kind of Partnership
Some trade deals are signed, celebrated, and quickly forgotten. CEPA – the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the UAE and India- isn’t one of them. In just three years, it has reshaped supply chains, boosted exports, and created new investment pathways. More importantly, it has shifted how two of the world’s fastest-growing economies see each other: not just as trading partners, but as long-term collaborators in building the future.
From Tariffs to Trust
When CEPA came into effect in May 2022, it slashed tariffs on nearly 80 percent of Indian goods, granting almost 90 percent of exports zero-duty access to the UAE. The benefits, however, extend far beyond customs duties. For Indian businesses, Dubai has become a launchpad into Africa and Europe. For the UAE, CEPA strengthens its role as a re-export hub while opening doors to India’s vast consumer market.
This wasn’t accidental. It was strategic. And as trade flows accelerated, so did confidence on both sides.
Numbers that Tell the Story
The results are hard to ignore. In the first half of 2025, bilateral non-oil trade reached US$37.6 billion, up nearly 34 percent from the same period in 2024. Between 2021 and 2024, total trade almost doubled – jumping from US$43.3 billion to US$83.7 billion.
India’s non-oil exports to the UAE have grown at an average of 25 percent annually, hitting US$27.4 billion in 2023-24. Both governments now have their eyes on an ambitious milestone: US$100 billion in annual non-oil trade by 2030, alongside services trade worth more than US$15 billion.
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during CEPA’s launch: “This agreement demonstrates the deep friendship, shared vision and the trust between our countries. It will open a new era in our bilateral economic relations.” Three years later, the numbers confirm his words.
The Big Winners
Some sectors have gained faster than others:
- Jewellery and precious stones are flowing seamlessly, with Dubai reinforcing its global status as a luxury trading hub.
- Agriculture and food products – from tea and spices to seafood – are reaching UAE shelves fresher and faster.
- Technology and digital services are scaling quickly as Indian IT and fintech firms find fewer barriers in the Gulf.
- Green energy is emerging as a shared frontier, with both countries investing in hydrogen and renewables.
Each of these industries tells the same story: CEPA is not abstract policy—it’s real momentum.
The Human Face of CEPA
For Indian SMEs, the agreement has made exporting to the UAE less intimidating. Paperwork is lighter, tariffs lower, and opportunities greater. For UAE consumers, it means more choice at better value – whether that’s spices, electronics, or digital solutions.
And for investors, CEPA has unlocked confidence. Emirati funds are moving deeper into India’s infrastructure, agritech, and retail markets. At the same time, Indian companies are setting up shop in Dubai’s free zones to reach global customers.
Challenges That Need Fixing
Still, the corridor isn’t without friction. Customs delays can slow perishable shipments. Smaller exporters often struggle with trade finance or the complexity of proving “rules of origin” for tariff benefits. And with rising trade volumes, sustainability concerns – carbon emissions, packaging waste, supply chain footprints – are becoming harder to ignore.
These challenges are real, but solvable. In fact, they represent the next layer of opportunity: smarter logistics, greener systems, and targeted support for micro-exporters.
Looking Toward 2030
The next phase of CEPA is likely to be driven by services. Healthcare, education, fintech, and even space technology are emerging as the corridor’s new frontiers. UAE sovereign funds are already investing heavily in Indian digital platforms and renewable energy, while Indian startups explore partnerships in Dubai.
Inclusivity will be another defining factor. Empowering women-led businesses, supporting SMEs, and ensuring sustainable trade practices will make the corridor not just bigger – but stronger and fairer.
Conclusion: More Than Numbers
CEPA has proved itself in just three years. It has doubled trade, created new winners, and given businesses on both sides the confidence to think bigger. By 2030, the true measure of success won’t just be billions in trade value – it will be in the stories of businesses that scaled, families that thrived, and innovations that crossed borders.
The UAE–India economic corridor is no longer just about tariffs or targets. It is about trust turning into opportunity, and opportunity turning into a shared future.
